PHOENIX — As of early December, COVID-19 has caused more than 7,000 deaths in Arizona.
Now, some experts are blaming the virus for a big spike in violent crime.
Phoenix police data shows that cases of murder and aggravated assault are higher right now than they’ve been at this point in the past five years.
It’s all part of a troubling trend nationwide.
So far, police report that there have been 175 murder or non-negligent manslaughter cases at this point in the year.
Last year Phoenix police recorded 129 total homicide cases.
"Can you connect that to COVID? Of course you can," says Jeff Hynes, a former Phoenix police commander and current professor at GCC.
"When you have people with tensions high, people losing their jobs, people saying home, increase in alcoholism and substance abuse, you’re going to have more domestic violence."
But he suspects it's more than people prone to violence in a pandemic.
"Unfortunately, a lot of it is based on the economic stability of our country and our communities and our cities," Hynes said.
Phoenix police say the last time their violent crime cases were this high was in 2007 just as the Great Recession was starting.
"In 2008 we started a major reduction of law enforcement number based on economic conditions," he explains.
Some departments across the county also had to reduce community programs designed to curb violent crime. A strain that's worsened by social distancing.
"They’re going to step back because they’re going to avoid contact with the public as much as they can other than responding to calls," Hynes says.
Add in recent racial tensions and calls for police reform and Hynes says it all boils over into the rising violent crime.
"You throw those bricks on the shoulders of what’s occurring and it’s going to take us a while to come through this and fight these issues."
Hynes predicts things will get worse before they get better. From his research and decades in law enforcement he estimates it will be three to five years before numbers turn around.
