PHOENIX — Monsoon and tropical moisture from Hurricane Hilary will come together and bring a high-impact weather event to State 48 this weekend.
Hilary will make landfall on the Baja coast and then move into Southern California late in the weekend and early next week.
The greatest potential for flooding will be across western Arizona, including Yuma, La Paz and Mohave counties. A flood watch has been issued for the western half of Arizona through Monday because conditions will be favorable for flooding over the next few days with periods of heavy rain in the forecast
In the Valley this weekend, it will not be a washout.
In fact, we will have many dry hours, especially on Saturday.
The day will start off muggy and dry with mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm chances will go up later in the afternoon and evening with severe storms possible. The biggest severe weather threats will include localized flash flooding, damaging wind gusts and blowing dust in the Valley late Saturday.
When it comes to rain amounts, there is going to be a very sharp cut-off from those who see a lot of rain and flooding to those who don’t see much at all.
There is high confidence that western Arizona will pick up several inches of rain over the weekend, but the further east you go across Arizona the less you’ll see.
We can expect many dry hours in the Valley this weekend and even more dry time than wet for eastern Arizona. Here’s what we can expect in terms of precipitation amounts through Monday.
A widespread area of 1-3” can be expected for western Arizona, including Yuma, La Paz and Mohave counties. The highest totals from this weekend will be seen across southern California where flooding could be catastrophic.
Much of southern CA will see 2-6” and some localized areas up to 10”. Flagstaff, Prescott, the Grand Canyon and much of western Maricopa County including Gila Bend will fall in the 0.5-1” band of rain.
Phoenix has a high likelihood of seeing 0.2-0.5” this weekend, while much of eastern AZ will be in the 0.2” range. There can always be localized higher amounts to these numbers due to heavy thunderstorm activity, but these are the general ranges for the weekend.
When it comes to excessive rain and flooding risk, areas in yellow have a 15% chance to exceed flash-flooding guidance on Saturday which includes the western half of the state. Areas in green fall in a 5% chance.
Here’s the same map for Sunday. Areas along the Colorado River, in red, are in a 40% chance to exceed flash flooding guidance on Sunday. Areas in yellow have a 15% chance and green is a 5% chance.
As Hilary makes landfall on Sunday and Monday on the Baja and southern CA, chances for rain and storms will go up across Arizona. This looks like it’ll be the wetter day of the two this weekend.
Arizona Weather
Arizona has seen its fair share of severe weather. Here is a compilation of videos from various storms across the Grand Canyon state.
