CHANDLER, Ariz. — An analysis by 12News of recent elections and voter registration records shows Legislative District 13 in the southeast Valley is likely to be the most competitive between Democrats and Republicans.
The district comprises Chandler and parts of Gilbert. It stretches west to the Loop 101, east to Lindsay Road., north to Highway 60 and south to Hunt Highway.
Republicans have an edge with just over 51,000 voters compared to 40,000 voters registered as Democrats. The district has 52,000 voters registered with no party affiliation. Voters in the district slightly favored Doug Ducey for governor in 2018 and Katie Hobbs for governor in 2022.
VERSIÓN EN ESPAÑOL: El distrito legislativo más disputado en Arizona podría determinar quién es electo
The district sent two Republicans to the state legislature (Sen. J.D. Mesnard and expelled Rep. Liz Harris) and one Democrat (Rep. Jennifer Pawlik).
“Those races, they could actually be the tipping point in the State Senate, the State House, both of which have a one-vote deficit for Democrats,” said Democratic political consultant DJ Quinlan. “What you’ve seen in that area over the last couple of decades, Intel, growth of the microchip industry, there’s been an influx of new voters that are more educated, less partisan, and we’ve seen really close elections.”
The Arizona Independent Redistricting Committee intentionally designed four districts to be uniquely competitive, including LD13, Quinlan said.
LD13 was also the source of drama during last year’s legislative session, reflecting the influence of conspiratorial thinking among many far-right voters.
House Republicans and Democrats voted in April to expel Rep. Harris. Republican leaders concluded Harris deceived leadership when she placed a witness in an official hearing who laid out a preposterous criminal conspiracy involving a drug cartel, elected leaders of both parties and even the LDS Church.
It remains to be seen how the election-denial camp in the Republican Party will influence the next election.
“It reflects a distrust of institutions, which is not going away,” said Republican political consultant Stan Barnes. “The movement turns off a lot of people because of Trump, who just can’t get over his jackassary. But the movement is real. And it’s bigger than the man.”
Asked if he believes the MAGA wing of the party will help or hurt a swing district like LD13 next year, Barnes said he’s not sure “how the ball will bounce.”
“The Trump movement, the MAGA movement has this immediate 35-40% of loyal followers. And the left has its 35-40%. And then there are the people in the middle who are just trying to figure out what’s in their own best interests,” Barnes said.
A recent Pew Research survey showed the top three issues voters are concerned about are inflation, health care costs and dysfunction in Washington D.C.
Quinlan said he predicts Democrats will emphasize a pro-democracy platform heading into next year.
“I think what’s on the mind of voters day-to-day is more of the traditional pocketbook issues. However, as we get closer to the election, I think more of the stakes of the election will come into play, particularly basic issues of democracy,” Quinlan said.
Arizona Politics
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