PHOENIX — A new study predicts Arizona's economy will shrink if learning loss isn't reversed.
This comes after test scores dropped to historic lows following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Common Sense Institute Arizona, a non-partisan organization, said it will take 10 to 15 years to understand the full impact, but project major losses if current trends aren't corrected.
The study is based on 2022 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) test scores for fourth and eighth graders.
“If you’re on track in fourth grade and on track in eighth grade, you’re really likely to graduate, and if you’re not, you’re less likely to catch up and to graduate at all," Common Sense Institute Arizona Executive Director Katie Ratlief said.
Researchers said the historic learning loss could be an indicator of Arizona's economy over the next decade.
“High school graduation is about the best thing you can do to improve your community, to reduce crime rates and to improve people’s personal income over time," Ratlief said.
The study predicts more than 18,000 students won't graduate high school by 2032 if losses aren't reversed.
Ratlief said this can become a domino effect, leading to fewer jobs and more crime.
“Those people can expect to make less money over the course of their lifetime and that has an impact on personal income that we estimate to be about $11 billion," Ratlief said.
She said with people earning less money, people will be spending less money.
“Our study found that we could expect our economy to be close to $1 billion smaller every year for about a total cumulative impact of $5.8 billion," Ratlief said.
The study projects Arizona will have more than 26,000 fewer college graduates by 2026.
“It’s a really daunting number that we’re going to pay really close attention to," University of Arizona (UA) Chief Enrollment Officer Kasey Urquidez said.
Colleges, such as UA, said they haven't seen a shift in enrollment yet.
This year, UA welcomed more than 9,000 first-year students and 3,200 transfer students.
“We’ve seen an increase and we’re really hopeful we can stay on this trajectory, at least maintain through demographic shifts but also the changes that we’re seeing with the preparation," Urquidez said.
The study's projections begin in 2026 when current eighth graders will graduate high school.
“If these losses are not reversed for them, we think that’s when you’ll start to see significant drops occur," Ratlief said.
Ratlief said there's still time to turn this trend around.
“These declines do not have to be permanent. There are resources available to communities and to school leaders but we have to start talking about them and addressing them now," Ratlief said.
Earlier this month, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne put aside $40 million in federal COVID-19 relief funding to pay teachers to tutor students who are falling behind.
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