In many ways -- certainly for Latino activists getting out the vote -- the race for Maricopa County sheriff is the most important election on the ballot. Bigger than Trump vs Clinton.
There is a palpable feeling that Arpaio must be defeated this year to show the growing power of the Latino vote. An Arpaio defeat would cause a political earthquake in Arizona, with tremors felt across the country.
There is another major player in Maricopa County: George Soros. The billionaire commodities trader and Democratic donor has spent $2 million to defeat Joe Arpaio, his single biggest investment in a local race this year.
Soros has also spent $1 million to defeat GOP County Attorney Bill Montgomery, backing an unknown Democratic attorney named Diego Rodriguez.
Arpaio has spent more than $10 million of his own campaign money against Penzone. Up to 75 percent of Arpaio's money is typically raised from outside of the county and out of state.
Impact: The Soros money helps to feed an anti-incumbent mood in the county, and it’s having an impact. Montgomery is sweating. He’s likely to survive, but it might be close. Six-term Sheriff Arpaio was already in trouble before the Soros money came in; now it may have sealed his fate. County Recorder Helen Purcell was already in trouble, having barely won her GOP primary in August. She might be losing the election in real time today. Her opponent, Adrian Fontes, another lawyer who’s a first-time candidate, will benefit.
Historic note: Should Fontes or Rodriguez win, they would likely be the first Latinos elected to countywide office in Maricopa County. No one’s been able to find others.
So what about Trump?: Here’s where things get really interesting. Donald Trump must win Maricopa County -- the state’s largest, home to about two-thirds of all votes cast -- if he hopes to win Arizona. (I can create a scenario where Trump wins the state without Maricopa, with huge votes in rural counties, but it’s a long shot.)
Is there a scenario where Trump wins Maricopa County while his most passionate endorser, Joe Arpaio, loses the county? You’d say that can’t happen, right? They share the same voters.
They do -- but only their base in the Republican Party and some independents. Talking to insiders on both sides, it is possible that in a “throw-them-all-out” year, you could see Republican voters and independents voting for Trump (largely motivated by a hatred of Clinton) AND voting against Arpaio, as an establishment candidate they’re fed up with (for solid, conservative reasons -- the spending of tens of millions of taxpayer dollars, the uninvestigated sex abuse cases, the charges, and more).
SHERIFF'S RACE POLLING
The polling on this race has been poor. Both the Penzone and Arpaio campaigns have released their own polls showing their candidate in the lead. An AzCentral/Cronkite poll put Penzone up 15 (which even the Penzone campaign didn’t believe). A private, independent poll in early October showed Penzone up 10, but the margin of error was 5 points. That poll was done before Arpaio was charged with criminal contempt of court.
FUN FACT
Maricopa County has not voted for a Democrat for president in 68 years. Bill Clinton lost the county when he won the state in 1996. Arpaio keeps a newspaper clipping of that race to show that he beat Clinton in ‘96.