A new statewide poll of the presidential race in Arizona shows a dead heat between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Clinton leads Trump, 43 percent to 42 percent.
The independent poll, by Phoenix-based Data Orbital, also shows Prop 205, the initiative that would legalize recreational marijuana in Arizona, is a tossup, with 45 percent of voters opposing it, 44 percent in support and 5 percent undecided.
Coming just 25 days before Election Day, the presidential poll is further confirmation of one of the biggest surprises of this campaign season: Arizona could vote Democratic in November for just the second time in the last 68 years.
The polling web site fivethirtyeight.com, which aggregates all Arizona polls, rates the state as a dead heat.
The Arizona presidential poll was done after the disclosure of Trump's lewd comments about women and after the second presidential debate.
Pollster and political consultant George Khalaf said Trump support swung by three points, from up two percentage points to down by one point. Khalaf noted the percentage of people who refused to respond to the poll also rose.
"It was potentially the lowest week for Trump ... but it's not like the bottom fell out," said Khalaf, a political consultant who is former political director for the Arizona Republican Party. "It looks like Clinton benefited by a couple of percent."
The biggest swing was in Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson's support, which dropped four points, to five percent.
Khalaf attributed gains by the "no" side on Prop 205 to the huge amounts of money it's spent on TV in the last few weeks.
"It's not that good for a proposition to be this far below 50 percent," he said of the "yes" side. "It's not a great sign for legalization, unless they outspend (the 'no' side) in next few weeks or younger voters' turnout is larger than anticipated."
Both polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.12 percent.
The polls surveyed 550 likely general election voters, half on landline and half on cell phone.
The party registration mix was 40 percent republican; 32 percent Democrat; and 8 percent independent, which reflects typical general election turnout in Arizona.
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