New poll shows Donald Trump with slim lead in Arizona

A poll released Tuesday by Monmouth University shows Donald Trump with a one-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the presidential race.

However, that lead is within the margin of error of 4.9 percent, meaning it is neck and neck between the two candidates.

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The poll shows Clinton with a significant lead among early voters, 52 percent to 42 percent for voters who have already submitted their ballots. About 40 percent of respondents said they had already voted.

"Clinton is banking a significant advantage in Arizona's early vote.  Trump has to count on every other voter who says they are supporting him now to actually show up on Election Day," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, in a news release.

Trump has the advantage among those who haven't yet voted, leading 49 percent to 41 percent.

Results among other key demographics: 

• Clinton leads 65 percent to 30 percent among Hispanic voters, who make up one-fifth of state's likely voters

• Trump has a 56 percent to 35 percent lead among white voters

• Trump greatest advantages come among white men (64 percent to 26 percent) and white voters without a college degree (66 percent to 28 percent)

• Support for either candidate is too close to call among white women (47 percent Trump to 44 percent Clinton) and white college graduates (45 percent Trump to 43 percent Clinton)

In another important Arizona race, Sen. John McCain leads Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick 50 percent to 40 percent.

They were essentially tied among respondents who had already voted (45 percent McCain to 44 percent Kirkpatrick). However, 54 percent of voters who haven't cast their ballot said they would vote for McCain, while only 38 percent planned to vote for Kirkpatrick.

Four percent of voters polled said they plan to vote for the Green Party's Gary Swing on Nov. 8.

Copyright 2016 KPNX


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